Stephen Rees's blog

Globe and Mail

This story goes back to London, where christian evangelist advertising on buses prompted atheists to have a whip round for some riposte ads of their own.

“There is probably no God. Now stop worrying and enjoy your life”

Actually in atheist circles the word “probably” itself became controversial.

Ariane Sherine started the campaign after noticing ads on London buses that led curious readers to a website that suggested non-Christians would spend eternity in hell.

Initially, Sherine hoped to raise enough money to post ads on 30 buses in London. The campaign received enough donations to buy ads on 800 buses across the U.K.

(source : MacLeans)
There is now a group who wants to do the same thing in Toronto – it has already spread to Washington, Barcelona and Madrid.

So I posed the question to Ken Hardie – would such ads offend the rules in Vancouver? Because, as far as I know, we have not been bombarded with hell fire and brimstone from religious groups in bus ads. But then maybe I missed them. The ads I tend to notice seem to concentrate either on pushing high priced loans – or debt counselling (which is nicely balanced).

Ken replied (very quickly, thank you Ken) that it probably would

As you know, we have resisted material that raises controversy so as not
to put transit workers on the firing line.  Some people who don’t like
something they see on a bus tend to take it out on the operator, and
nobody should have to deal with that kind of abuse.

We’re awaiting a Supreme Court of Canada ruling on the business of
political ads on the system — you’ll recall that the BCTF challenged
our refusal to accept their ads…we won the first round but they
succeeded on appeal and there were a few political campaign ads on the
system during the last federal campaign.

Except of course these are not political ads but religious ads – or more properly anti-religious ads. Because atheism is not a religion or even a belief system. It is based, as Jon Stewart likes to put it, on rationalism.

As long as there are not ads on buses pushing religion then we don’t need the opposite either – so the whole thing should be moot.  Let’s hope it stays that way.

Because the only car cards I enjoy reading are Poetry in Transit.

Michael Smyth, the Province’s  “provincial affairs” columnist decides that this week’s PM2H1 story has a political angle. He does not, of course, look at the vices or virtues of the project itself but concentrates on what mileage the NDP may be able to get out of it tomorrow. Because you cannot ask questions on Saturdays. (I did not know that)

“It’s absolutely an issue we’ll be raising,” acting NDP house leader Adrian Dix said yesterday, reacting to news that Australian toll-booth operator Macquarie Group is having trouble coming up with cash for the bridge, which was supposed to start construction by May.

There are actually some real issues here that the opposition should rightfully be able to raise not  the least of which is the new estimate of how much the project will cost. My friend Eric does a great job on this

Who does Highways Minister Kevin Falcon think he is fooling?

The U.K. business publication Project Finance reports the Port Mann freeway expansion needs $2.3 billion in financing, yet Falcon says it will only cost over $1 billion.

In 2004, Falcon said the freeway project would cost $800 million, so the project is now $1.5 billion over budget. At $2.3 billion, it is nearing three times the original estimate.

Borrowing $2.3 billion ($1,400 per B.C. household) for a freeway most Metro Vancouver residents and local governments oppose may not worry Gordon Campbell or Falcon. But we should all be worried about politicians who try to mislead the public.

Eric Doherty

The Done Deal is Coming Undone – We Demand Transit First, Not Freeways

Faced with the twin meltdown of climate and economy, the Premier and the Prime Minister seem intent to drive us over the edge by refusing to rethink the Gateway Project.

The people of this Region don’t want more Truckin’ Freeways or Evil Twin bridges, and now it seems the banks don’t want them either. The twinning of the Port Mann Bridge is now on shaky ground because banks don’t want to invest in the $2.3 billion project — more than double the cost promised by the Highways Minister.

The provincial government, desperate to save face, has extended the deadline for the Port Mann deal until February. NOW is the time for us to deliver a clear message to the provincial and federal governments and to the banking community: Don’t Bankrupt our Communities and our Climate – We Need Transit First! The BC Treasury Board states that transit projects create more jobs than freeway projects by 7 to 1.

Stand up for your community and demand green jobs, not blacktop!

With less than five months to go until the Provincial election, NUMBERS make all the difference. Please join us, bring drums, signs, costumes and banners, and add your voice to the rising chorus.

Come out at noon on Thurs. Jan. 22 and help to bring this dinosaur to its knees

NO GATEWAY BAILOUT!

ACTION TO STOP GATEWAY AND SUPPORT A GREEN ECONOMY

When:    Thursday, January 22 @ NOON to 1 pm

Where:    5 Bentall Centre @ 550 Burrard and Dunsmuir- the offices of Australia-based Macquarie Bank, major Gateway financier. Kitty-corner from Burrard SkyTrain Stn.

What:    A gathering of activists and concerned citizens from across the region staging a creative protest to tell Gordo, Harper, and potential investors to RETHINK GATEWAY, create GREEN JOBS, and invest in TRANSIT FIRST.

For background see Vancouver Sun, Thurs. Jan 15:    Port Mann Bridge financing thrown into question

For more info about the Gateway Project visit www.spec.bc.ca or www.gatewaysucks.org

Daniel Say posted this link to the trans-action list

It takes you to a blog called “Calculated Risk” which got the story from the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles. In bound traffic has been steadily declining since 2006. Now export traffic has started declining  as well.

That is the way that a depression works. The US financial disaster triggered by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco cut American’s ability to buy stuff from Asia. Now that means that the Asian economies have been hurt due to the loss of one of their biggest markets and have therefore stopped buying things from America. And we can expect that trend to continue for some time until either the much vaunted Obama rescue package starts to work or the world comes to its senses and starts to deal seriously with the major crisis that it now faces.

Which is not that economic growth has stopped. In fact, that might actually help a bit towards reducing the growth of carbon emissions inthe short term. In the longer term we actually need to figure out a way to reverse the warming trend that has been impacting this planet since the Industrial Revolution. Part of that is going to be dealing with the fact that ever increasing personal consumption did not make us happier or healthier. The metric of GDP actually tells us nothing about really important things. And the idea that an unregulated free market can bring about all kinds of benefits has also been shown to be a chimera.

But there are loud and insistent voices that cling to notions that are clearly unsustainable and untenable. Sadly those voices seem to be the ones our governments and media prefer to listen to.

I cannot imagine a worse time to be proposing port expansion in Vancouver – together with all the assorted infrastructure projects grouped under the Gateway banner. They are all – separately and together – pointing in the wrong direction. This is not Smart Growth. This is the opposite of Smart Growth – it is repeating exactly the same mistake – over and over again. And worse than that – deliberately lying about the expected outcome. The demand forecasts used have now been shown to be misleading. The costs have been understated. Most of the deleterious impacts have been ignored. All of the supposed benefits are either overstated or illusory.

On Saturday the legislature of this province is being recalled. But procedurally it will deal with only one “crisis” – the need to get more funding to complete Vancouver’s athlete’s village in time for the 2010 Olympics. There will be no question time. This session will not be allowed to become a platform for the Opposition to do what it is supposed to do – hold the Government to account. Because if they were allowed to do that, it would have a measurable and negative impact on this government’s chance of being re-elected. So it does not matter what serious concerns the people of BC may have – or would like to see debated. That will not happen. And no doubt there will be yet more non-events, like the SFPR gong show this week, to try and paper over the rather obvious cracks in the government’s strategy. Building things with public money can help offset a recession. But building the wrong things – or useless things – is a lot less effective than doing the right things.

And in our case calling a halt to Gateway, and spending the money on transit instead, would be a very sensible thing to do. Which is why you cannot expect this government to even consider it.

A debate is to be held at the Vancouver Public Library’s  McKay room (Bottom level of VPL downtown at 350 West Georgia St, Vancouver) on Wednesday, January 21, 2009  at 7pm

Arguing the Affirmative:
Patrick Condon, Senior Researcher, UBC Design Centre for Sustainability

Arguing the Negative:
Mike Harcourt, Former Premier of British Columbia

As a former premier of British Columbia, mayor of Vancouver and city councilor, Mike Harcourt helped British Columbia earn its reputation as one of the most livable places in the world. His focus on conservation and sustainable development – and his resolve to contribute to the transformation of cities and communities around the world – has played a significant role in promoting quality of life for those in Canada and abroad.

After stepping down from politics, Harcourt served as a member of the National Round Table on the Environment and Economy, where he served on the Executive Committee and Chaired the Urban Sustainability Program. He was a B.C. Treaty Commissioner, and he was chair of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Committee for Cities and Communities and he co-chaired the National Advisory Committee on the UN-HABITAT World Urban Forum. Harcourt also chaired the Directors Selection Committee on behalf of Mayors in collaboration with Translink and B.C. Ministry of Transportation. He is Honorary Chair of the International Centre for Sustainable Cities, and Co-Chair of the International Panel of Advisors.

Professor Patrick Condon has over 25 years experience in sustainable urban design; first as a professional city planner and then as a teacher. He started his academic career in 1985 at the University of Minnesota, moving to the University of British Columbia in 1992, acting first as the Director of the Landscape Architecture program and later as the James Taylor Chair in Landscape and Livable Environments.

As Chair he pioneered multi party sustainable community design workshops now generally known as charrettes, starting in 1995 with the seminal Sustainable Urban Landscapes Surrey Design Charrette.

Since that time he has worked to advance sustainable urban design in dozens of major charrettes, and scores of publications. He has lectured widely in both Canada and abroad, and is the author of several books, most recently “Design Charrettes for Sustainable
Communities”, Island Press.

He has been instrumental in establishing the highly successful Smart Growth on the Ground charrettes with Smart Growth BC and is currently focused on the Sustainability by Design project, a vision for a sustainable region of 4 million.

He is now a senior researcher with the UBC Design Centre for Sustainability, an urban design think tank that evolved from the original efforts of the Chair and now employees over a dozen researchers.

If you read the comments on this blog you will know why this gets posted here. It is apparently one of a series called “Langara Dialogues” and it is suggested that you get there early to ensure seating.

Jeff Nagel on unnamed consultants’ idea for reconfiguring SkyTrain if the Evergreen line is built.

transit network 2014

The image, by the way, is not the one Jeff used – this better quality one I got from fellow flickrite Paul Hillsdon.

The idea is to run trains through from Coquitlam to VCC so that there is no need to change at Lougheed Mall. The existing Millennium Line service would be cut back to a low volume shuttle service between Columbia and Lougheed freeing up a lot of capacity for Expo Line service to Surrey. A new short turn service on the Expo Line could also be added to run between Waterfront and Metrotown, which is the section which has the highest demand.

The August study indicated the configuration could save TransLink $20 to $100 million by reducing the number of extra SkyTrain cars that would have to be bought to achieve desired service levels.

Which may appeal to the current Translink management – though as usual Ken Hardie is doing his best to be non-committal. If there is a cash crunch – because the Mayor’s have yet to approve a new funding source – then there may be little option. Of course my preference would be to have more SkyTrain cars and more service. Because everywhere I have been that has been shown to be the most effective way of getting people to switch modes from driving to riding transit. But that is not – it seems – Translink’s main objective any longer.

And while I am taking images from Paul’s flickr stream here is a shot of the new SkyTrain cars in the new, standardized Translink livery. (Although that is where I found it, apparently it originates with the Buzzer blog.) The Darth Vader tendency at Translink wins again. Their preference for all new vehicles is “paint it black”.

New SkyTrain cars

The Sun has the story this morning (January 15) but adds (to what has already been posted) only this observation on Macquarie’s troubles

The consortium chosen to enter final negotiations was selected in August. Called Connect BC Development Group, it includes Australian-based Macquarie Group, an international toll road operator and investor.

But Macquarie, which operates more than 30 roads worldwide, has been hit hard by the financial meltdown.

The value of the company’s toll-road portfolio fell by a third in the last four months of 2008. In a statement issued by Macquarie, it blamed “the recessionary environment” and “higher assumed financing costs.”

And the NDP’s finance critic Bruce Ralston questioning the need for a P3 – but not, note, the need for the bridge and highway expansion.

Matt Burrows in the Georgia Strait has coverage of Jim Houlahan questioning next year’s operating budget at Translink.

TransLink approved an operating budget of $1.3 billion, according to the same December release. Revenue and expenditure budget figures from the TransLink 2009 budget and business plan summary reveal that total operating expenditures are about $1.27 billion this year, up from approximately $1.08 billion in 2008. The 2007 annual report lists the operating budget for that year at $896.3 million.

So the year on year increase is $190m or 17.5% – but Jim decides to go for $400m in two years – the figures are bigger but the questions remain.

The answers from Translink’s spokesperson Judy Rudin look a bit thin. The addition of a third SeaBus does not seem to explain very much. And a 4.6% increase in service does not translate into a 17.5% increase in costs – or rather, it shouldn’t. And even if we start paying the Canada Line debt service this year, says Jim, that’s only $30m a year.

I don’t spend much time trawling over Translink Board reports these days. Maybe someone who does can throw some more light on this.

The story I mentioned in this morning’s post gets more interesting. Jeff Nagel in the Surrey Leader now has  more information and Kevin Falcon has issued a statement.  Interestingly that has not yet hit the Ministry’s web page

Transportation minister Kevin Falcon, in a statement issued Wednesday, said the province has agreed to Macquarie’s request for a one-month extension to complete the loan.

“This is in response to the current challenges facing capital markets,” Falcon said.

“Macquarie advised government that they remain confident that they will be successful in completing lending syndication. The Province of B.C. will wait and see the results of the proponents’ effort, but regardless remain committed to the Port Mann project utilizing alternative means of financing should that be necessary.”

Falcon wasn’t available for an interview and ministry staff say he’s not speculating on whether the province might borrow money directly and terminate the financing component of the project.

The concept was for the partners to finance, design, build and then maintain the twinned bridge and widened 37-kilometre highway corridor.

It would be repaid and make a profit from tolls charged to cross the bridge over the next 35 years.

There are also indications the cost of the project has ballooned again – from $1.7 billion to as much as $2.3 billion.

That’s the amount of financing sought by the partners, according to British industry journal Project Finance, which reported the failure to finalize.

Now that hike in price is also worth noticing – because one of the things that is supposed to happen when the construction industry cools off and oil prices fall is that projects like this were supposed to cost less, not more. Certainly any property that might be needed would have dropped in price recently. Since blacktop (asphalt) is an oil based product and cement takes lots of energy to make that makes those two components sheaper too. One can only assume that either the project has “crept” – an oft seen phenomenon that P3s were supposed to put a stop too – or the original estimates were lowballed. $600 million is not pocket change either – and a 35% hike in costs is going to need to be explained.

Of course one thing you know won’t happen is that they will go back to the Cost Benefit Analysis to see if it is still worth doing.

“Utilizing alternative means of financing” needs parsing too. Is that a hint that the P3 itself might be canned and the Province will revert to a more conventional contract? And the timing is going to be really awkward, because if the current deal does collapse, it will take a while to sort out a new one – and that will fall right into the election period. So the whole issue could become a real political issue again.

And to think that only a couple of days ago two journalists (on spearate occassions) were telling me that the on going Gateway saga was of doubtful news value.

And Jeff is continuing to update the story and noew (5:30) has a good quote from my good freind Eric Doherty

Doherty says the reported loan cost of $2.3 billion also raises big questions, noting the project was originally was based on a $1.3-billion price tag.

“It seemed at that time like it was a stretch for the tolls to cover a $1.3-billion project,” he said. “Now you’re looking at a $2.3-billion project and you’re looking at lower expected traffic volumes in the first few years because of the economic downturn.

“You add those two things up and there’s no way they could possibly pay for this whole project with tolls.”

UPDATE

The Sun has the story this morning (January 15). The only additonal infromation that adds to what is above is about Macquarie’s troubles

Macquarie, which operates more than 30 roads worldwide, has been hit hard by the financial meltdown.

The value of the company’s toll-road portfolio fell by a third in the last four months of 2008. In a statement issued by Macquarie, it blamed “the recessionary environment” and “higher assumed financing costs.”

And the NDP’s finance critic Bruce Ralston questioning the need for a P3. But not, note, the need for the bridge and highway expansion.

Charlie Smith on the Georgia Straight’s politics blog this morning (isn’t having a Twitter feed wonderful?) speculates on a number of Olympics related budget items which are also not performing as planned. He cites the Vancouver Convention Centre (the broadcasting centre for the games) the Sea to Sky Highway (which will not be quite the real estate boon Kack Poole hoped for) but mostly the Canada Line.

Urban-affairs writer Jane Jacobs once described the Canada Line as a “pork barrel” and “black hole” that will consume limited transit funds.

The Canada Line will result in rerouting of the bus system.

This will shock merchants on north-south streets such as Fraser, Oak, and Granville when they learn that they no longer have people using the bus to reach their stores.

Some might even cite this and ask for a break on property taxes.

But the biggest risk of all is if the Canada Line fails to attract more than 100,000 riders per day.

It will be a difficult challenge, given the cost of transit in this region and the percentage of households in Richmond that own cars.

If the line doesn’t generate sufficient ridership, TransLink will have to provide a whopping operating subsidy to the private operator.

How will that be financed? Probably by cutting back on bus service and jacking up fares.

Well he may be right about the impact on retailers but that is going to be hard to determine. Retail is in trouble already – everywhere – becuase of the recession. So the additonal impact of losing north south bus service is going to be hard to determine. The retailers that I had to deal with when the Richmond Rapid Bus proposal was working its way through public consultations were decidely unimpressed with buses and refused to accept then that people who ride the bus might have money to spend. Their main concerns then were about parking – and the visibility of their store fronts to passing motorists. That was one of the main reasons that the architect designed new bus shelters had to be all glass. And while I am not privy to the bus plans post Canada Line I would expect that there will be some service. After all there has been a long running campaign to try to get trolley buses reinstated on Cambie – so there is obviously going to be some local bus service on the these north-south routes. Probably much les frequent than they are now.

The threat of service cuts and fare hikes is already on the table due to major financing concerns. Either the region’s Mayors agree to a new source of funding for Translink or those cuts will be implemented in order to balance the books. And that happens whether or not the Canada Line hits its magic number of projected riders.

Actually my prediction right now is that the big shock may be the P3 financing for the Port Mann Twinning and Highway 1 expansion. Which, of course, is not Olympic related. BCTV last night passed along a story it had picked up from Project Finance Magazine – which is only available by subscription on line.  They are reporting that the deal that was supposed to have been signed by now  hasn’t been. The January 8 deadline has passed but there are still expectations that it will close by early February. Or not if market rumours about the banks’ credit retraints and doubts about the debt pricing structure are true. The deal is hideously complicated and discussed in language only understood by those with much financial expertise. Which in itself raises my eyebrows, since that has often the technique used in the past to get dubious deals through without too much scrutiny. Of course, with recent revelations about Ponzi schemes, everyone is being a lot more careful these days. Which translates to yet more risk transfer – back to the taxpayer, of course, who is always left holding the bag, just as is now happening with the athlete’s village.