Stephen Rees's blog

Thoughts about the relationships between transport and the urban area it serves

New poll shows Liberals and NDP neck and neck

with 3 comments

Mustel have produced a new survey which shows that Liberal support continues to slide and the two main parties have around the same percentage of those decided.

mustel-nov-08-neck-and-neckMustel says that it is due to people in the interior and women shifting from the Liberals to the NDP. But what caught my eye is the five poercentage point drop in Green voting intention. Partly becuase the economy is now by far the major issue (of course) but possibly also in reaction to the absence of any Greens getting a seat in the recent federal election.

mustel-nov-08-appro

I have no theory at all as to how Campbell managed to increase his approval rating – but I do nitice that while his rating sbounce around, Carole James has been steadily improving hers.

Two happy trends in anotherwise rather gloomy prospect

Written by Stephen Rees

November 25, 2008 at 4:34 pm

Posted in politics

3 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Makes my day.

    Bernadette Keenan

    November 25, 2008 at 5:20 pm

  2. Grant

    That claim about Mustel is libellous, and I have no reason to think that it is based on fact.

    There are reasons why polls taken at the same time of the same target group will have different results – which is why there is always that statistical warning on poll results. Recently polling companies have been moving to web based technologies rather than random digit telephone dialling. That alone can explain some of the variation between different pollsters.

    And, by the way, Angus Reid now produces different results from Ipsos Reid the firm he founded and then left.

    Your paranoia is not a good foundation for statistical analysis.

    Stephen Rees

    November 26, 2008 at 10:31 am

  3. Grant

    That claim about Mustel is libellous, and I have no reason to think that it is based on fact.

    There are reasons why polls taken at the same time of the same target group will have different results – which is why there is always that statistical warning on poll results. Recently polling companies have been moving to web based technologies rather than random digit telephone dialling. That alone can explain some of the variation between different pollsters.

    And, by the way, Angus Reid now produces different results from Ipsos Reid the firm he founded and then left.

    Your paranoia is not a good foundation for statistical analysis.

    Stephen Rees

    November 26, 2008 at 10:33 am


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: