Fwd: Falcon in Trouble?
I have been wondering about why I have not found very much to blog about this week. I admit I have been distracted – pleasantly – and perhaps not paying as close attention as I might. But this blog entry from Bill Tieleman is certainly worth bringing to your attention.
A BC Liberal internal poll has been leaked to Bill and it shows that they are 9% behind the NDP. This of course is very different from other recent polls – and Bill has that analysis too. But the 9% figure appear to me to be an average across the province, because he also has figures for current Liberal seats where the NDP lead is much greater. Local issues obviously affect ridings.
Perhaps most shocking is a riding result showing Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon in a neck and neck race with the NDP in Surrey-Cloverdale.
And this is being driven by the recent spate of gang shootings, Olympic costs and the economy. To be fair Bill’s source talks about the economy “outside of Victoria and Metro Vancouver”. While the resource sedctor has been the hardest hit the big cities are not immune from these effects – and I suspect that voters living here have worries about where things are headed.
The other polls have also been saying that people feel the BC Liberals might be better equipped than the NDP to deal with recession – which if true just shows how ill informed the electorate are. The current economic crisis is the direct result of neo-conservative policies that were being followed by the Bush administration – and forced down the throats of many countries by the IMF and World Bank. Deregulation and a war on public spending have brought about the mess we have now. Huge payments to the financial sector so that they can escape the consequences of their own foolishness have done little to reverse the tide.
My own take is that people in general are getting ready for a change – perhaps not so much because they like the NDP and their policies, but they are getting tired of the arrogance of the Liberals. Their rather obvious grandstanding – and the fatuous suggestion that somehow 2010 will be a magic wand that waves all our cares away – is getting under our collective skin. What I have yet to see is any real understanding that we will not be returning to business as usual. We keep being told this is a recession and that it is a temporary effect – part of a trade cycle with an inevitable upswing, sooner or later. That I doubt.
As it happens I got a call from Pete McMartin this morning – and he is similarly very doubtful that people are ready for the magnitude of changes that will be needed for us to cope with climate change and peak oil. But that is now a reality that we will have to deal with – even if it is yet to be refelcted in polling.